October 7, 2016–RESIDENTS ALONG THE KENAI RIVER, PARTICULARLY IN THE KENAI KEYS AND BIG EDDY AREAS, SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WATER LEVELS WILL BE RISING OVER THE WEEKEND INSTEAD OF FOLLOWING THE NORMAL TREND OF DROPPING BEFORE WINTER. NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR HIGH WATER AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS, INCLUDING SECURING EQUIPMENT AND MOVING ITEMS TO HIGHER GROUND.
KENAI RIVER LEVELS AT THE OUTLET OF SKILAK LAKE HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS WHILE THE UPPER RIVER AT COOPER LANDING CONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT ESTIMATES OF THE SKILAK GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE VOLUME AND THE LIKELY RELEASE RATE, PEAK RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE KENAI RIVER GAGE BELOW SKILAK LAKE OR AREAS DOWNSTREAM
WATER LEVELS ON SKILAK LAKE AND THE KENAI RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM SKILAK LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS ON SKILAK LAKE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON OR NEAR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SKILAK LAKE IS FORECAST TO RISE APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 3 FEET WITH AREAS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE KENAI RIVER EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 FEET. IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE LOWER KENAI RIVER WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH BANKFULL.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THIS GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE RELEASE EVENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE RATE THAT THE GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE WILL DRAIN. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IF THE LAKE APPEARS TO BE DRAINING FASTER OR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.